The Bengals played a fourth-place schedule in 2021. That, coupled with the decline of the AFC North down the stretch of the season allowed the Bengals to have the fortune of playing the 30th ranked schedule overall (aka the 3rd easiest) in the entire NFL this year.
And specifically on offense, Joe Burrow’s Bengals were fortunate to play the NFL’s second-easiest schedule of defenses in 2021.
Strength of schedule is typically undervalued when accounting for a team’s ability to win games. As anyone who bets on games knows, playing a tough opponent adds difficult to a team’s chances to win that game, and the spread is adjusted to account for that.
The Bengals played just 5 games in the regular season against teams that ranked top-15 in efficiency. They went 1-4 in these games, losing to the Browns, Chargers, 49ers and Packers and coming from behind to beat the Chiefs (I’m removing the Week 18 loss to the Browns when the Bengals sat their starters).
Had the Bengals played a…
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