According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, there are nine teams that have at least a 10% chance to make the College Football Playoff, but only six have at least a 1% chance of actually winning the national title.
So you’re saying there’s a chance … for Texas?!
The Longhorns are No. 6, one of a handful of surprises in the preseason projections that also include No. 4 Clemson, No. 9 Pittsburgh and No. 10 Auburn. Yes, eyebrows are raised, but here’s a look at how each team can actually do it, what its chances are (according to ESPN’s FPI and the Allstate Playoff Predictor) and how the College Football Playoff selection committee will evaluate it:
Preseason FPI: No. 1
Preseason SP+: No. 3
Chance to win conference: 50%
Chance to make the CFP: 79%
Chance to play in the national title game: 52%
Biggest obstacle: It’s still Georgia. Georgia has a 90% chance to win the SEC East Division, while Alabama has an 85% chance to win the West, according to FPI, so it’s not only possible but likely they will face each other in the SEC championship again. Odds are that Georgia hasn’t forgotten what happened last time.
What the committee will like: S-E-C! S-E-C! Even as committee members have rotated, one constant over the past eight seasons has been multiple SEC teams ranked — including four-loss teams like Arkansas and Texas A&M last year. That always helps Alabama’s strength of schedule.
What the committee won’t like: A Sept. 10 loss at Texas. This is the Crimson Tide’s one chance in the nonconference schedule to impress the committee with a Power 5 road win. If the Longhorns are as good as ESPN’s FPI is giving them credit for, this could go a long way in overcoming a league loss or — gasp — helping the Tide sneak in if they don’t win the division. But if Alabama can’t beat Texas, its nonconference wins against Utah State, Austin Peay and Louisiana Monroe aren’t going to help.
Being in the SEC always helps Alabama with the playoff committee. Photo by Michael Allio/Icon…
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