In 2013, ESPN developed a groundbreaking metric called the Football Power Index (FPI), “designed to measure team strength and predict game and season outcomes.”
ESPN describes FPI as “a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.”
The world-wide leader recently released their 2022 pre-season FPI rankings, and there are some surprises to say the least.
Let’s look through the top-15 teams.
15
Utah Utes
Utah Utes players honor a pair of fallen teammates during the fourth quarter of the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, Calif. on Jan. 1, 2022.
College Football Rose Bowl
FPI: 12.7
Projected Win-Loss: 9-3
Playoff %: 4.9
14
Texas A&M Aggies
Nov 27, 2021; Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA; Texas A&M Aggies wide receiver Jalen Preston (5) scores a touchdown against LSU Tigers safety Cameron Lewis (31) during the second half at Tiger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
FPI: 12.8
Projected Win-Loss: 8-5
Playoff %: 1.4
13
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Jan 1, 2022; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Oklahoma State Cowboys cornerback Korie Black (4) against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during the 2022 Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
FPI: 13
Projected Win-Loss: 9-4
Playoff %: 4.3
12
Penn State Nittany Lions
Apr 17, 2021; University Park, PA, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Sean Clifford (14) looks on during the Penn State spring practice at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Alberti-USA TODAY Sports
FPI: 13.6
Projected Win-Loss: 8-4
Playoff %:…
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