Cowboys fans waiting for running back Ezekiel Elliott to return to the form that made him the league’s leading rusher in two of his first three seasons may be waiting in vain, says one of ESPN’s senior writers.
Bill Barnwell explored the disappointing 2021 seasons of four of the NFL’s highest-paid ball carriers to get a sense of whether it was fluke, bad injury luck, or something more troubling.
And while he predicts bounceback, mostly-strong campaigns for Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, and- to a lesser extent- Alvin Kamara, the stats and metrics suggest that Elliott’s best days are behind him.
Actually long behind him, as the numbers indicate he’s been tapering off for four years running.
Elliott racked up 1,002 yards on the ground last season, but played most of the year with a partially torn PCL. That alone might imply that a fully-healthy Elliott will perform even better in 2022. Even coach Mike McCarthy said this week that the 26-year-old “looks great” in voluntary offseason workouts.
But Barnwell uses Rush Yards Over Expectation (RYOE) to temper that report. RYOE is an NFL Next Gen Stats model that predicts how many yards a runner will gain given the speed and location of all 22 players on the field when he gets the ball.
Over four years of RYOE data, Elliott has declined every year.
He posted 0.5 RYOE in 2018, when he led the league in rushing attempts, overall touches, and rushing yards. That figure dipped to 0.4 in 2019, 0.1 in 2020, and actually fell into negatives last season, to -0.1 RYOE.
A declining Cowboys offensive line can shoulder at least some of the blame. And an increased dependence on quarterback Dak Prescott plays a part; the team simply doesn’t run as often as they did when Elliott first came into the league.
But, Barnwell points out, “you might argue the Cowboys have leaned more on the pass because Elliott has been less efficient as a runner.”
And then there’s Tony Pollard. The speedster entering his fourth pro…
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