Rashod Bateman Is Primed for Breakout Season, Analytics Suggest

Analytics Suggest Rashod Bateman Is Primed for Breakout Season

A number of pundits are predicting a big leap for Rashod Bateman in his second season, and the Ravens are counting on it since he is their No. 1 wide receiver. Those predictions are based on Bateman’s potential and the flashes the first-round pick showed last year in an injury-shortened season.

However, optimism for a breakout season by Bateman goes beyond the eye test, according to Ebony Bird’s Josh Siegel. Siegel took a deep dive into Bateman’s rookie statistics and the numbers don’t lie.

“No matter where you look, the numbers paint a story of a rookie season for Rashod Bateman that was not only productive, but indicative of future success,” Siegel wrote.

Siegel noted that it’s common for receivers to post better numbers in the second halves of their rookie seasons than the first. Bateman, who missed most of training camp and the first five games of the regular season due to a groin injury, put up similar numbers over his first eight games (in his case from Weeks 6-14) as one would expect from a receiver ready for that second-half breakout, despite playing a smaller percentage of snaps due to his injury.

Per Siegel, here’s how Bateman compared with other prominent receivers in their first eight games in terms of catches, yards, touchdowns and snap percentage:

Rashod Bateman: 32/404/0/59%

DeVonta Smith: 33/421/1/88%

D.K. Metcalf: 23/402/4/77%

Jaylen Waddle: 48/413/3/83%

Amon-Ra St. Brown: 27/250/0/66%

“What Bateman was doing in those games was no different than most high-profile rookie receivers, but he was putting up those numbers while playing fewer snaps. But when Bateman was ready for a greater snap count, Lamar Jackson was lost for the season,” Siegel wrote. “Over the last four games of the year, Bateman’s snap percentage increased all the way to 86%, but he no longer had the quarterback with whom those snaps were meant to be played.

“Bateman’s target share dropped from 13% over his first eight games to…