It might feel like the move of USC and UCLA to the Big Ten Conference on Thursday was the start of another realignment wave, but in truth it was just the next crest — albeit a massive one that is still shaking college sports’ foundation — in the wave that began last July.
If Texas and Oklahoma didn’t ditch the Big 12 for the Southeastern Conference, it is hard to imagine USC and UCLA feeling as if they had no choice but to toss aside a century of Pac-12 Conference tradition in order to stay viable.
While the Trojans’ and Bruins’ escape from the uncertainty of the Pac-12 shouldn’t be viewed as a stand-alone action, it certainly can be argued this is the shift that fully finalizes the transition from a “Power Five” to a “Power Two.”
The SEC and the Big Ten are seceding from the rest of college sports. They have no peers and will continue to establish that. If you’re not in their club, you won’t matter, unless you’re Notre Dame, which is why everybody from Eugene, Ore., to Clemson, S.C., to Miami is going to be trying to find their way onto the ark in the next few years.
How exclusive will the Power Two be now that they’re both at 16 schools? What is the Big Ten’s (and Fox’s) next move? How will the SEC (and ESPN) respond? Is the Pac-12 doomed? Let’s dive into the latest realignment madness.
The Notre Dame question
Multiple sources told The Times that the Big Ten will not be adding another Pac-12 school at this time. It would have been a natural assumption that a pairing of Oregon and Washington would follow their longtime conference brethren, but that is off the Big Ten’s board for now. Maybe the preferences of USC and UCLA — Fox’s priority because of the the brands and the Los Angeles market — have something to do with that?.
That means Notre Dame will be the next driver in any movement with the Big Ten, which has long coveted the Fighting Irish for all of the obvious reasons — brand power, football tradition, academic reputation and location.
If Notre Dame rebuffs the Big Ten and elects to stay independent in football and play other sports in the Atlantic Coast Conference, it’s possible the Big Ten takes a pause and continues to consider the remaining Pac-12 brands and ACC brands that fit the Big Ten model, such as North Carolina, Virginia and Georgia Tech.
