The current state of conference realignment would best be described as a strategic pause.
In the aftermath of USC and UCLA bolting the Pac-12 for the Big Ten — an unexpected earthquake whose shockwaves are still being felt nearly three weeks later — it does not seem there will be a rush for one or two mega-conferences to swallow up what we’ve come to know as the Power Five. That may happen eventually, but the current posture of the Big Ten and SEC seems to be more passive as both leagues crunch numbers and discuss with consultants whether there are any moves that might increase their revenue enough to make adding members worthwhile.
That will be a difficult bar to clear, at least in the short term. USA TODAY Sports has spoken with 14 people who have insight into realignment in a variety of roles across various conferences, granting them anonymity so they could convey what they are seeing and hearing as accurately as possible without betraying confidential discussions being held within every league and athletic department across the country.
The five key points that follow are a composite of those conversations, intended to bring at least a modicum of clarity to a confusing and rapidly changing landscape.
1. Notre Dame holds the cards now
Whenever there’s a shift in the fundamental structure of college sports, the notion that Notre Dame will finally be forced to join a football conference gains steam. But decade after decade, it turns out not to be true — and probably won’t be this time, either.
You can be sure that the major realignment moves of the last 12 months, including Texas and Oklahoma accepting membership in the SEC, have sparked some serious internal discussions at Notre Dame about the best path forward and what college sports might look like years down the road. But the nice thing about being Notre Dame is that it currently has enough scheduling clout and financial strength to maintain the status quo. As long as Notre Dame has access to whatever version of the postseason comes after 2025, when the current College Football Playoff contract expires, it doesn’t have to make any drastic moves.
If the Irish feel like joining the Big Ten is in its best interest, the Big Ten would love to have them. That could certainly be the kind of realignment whammy that provokes an aggressive response from the SEC and puts college sports…