Conference realignment has become an increasingly frustrating attempt to squeeze dollars out of a system that has consolidated resources at the top. The best brands and most of the money are among those 32 teams in the Big Ten and SEC — and the networks that own their major television rights (ESPN and Fox).
Everything else has become a scramble to the point that one source within the Big 12 said a worst-case scenario would be nothing happening in the league. That would mean staying at 12 teams with BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF In the fold after Texas and Oklahoma leave before the 2025 season.
Some Big 12 athletic directors are worried that the conference’s media rights dollars won’t stretch far enough to add more programs without their payouts being diminished. Outgoing commissioner Bob Bowlsby testified last summer that Texas and Oklahoma brought 50% of the rights value to the league.
The same reality is emerging for the Pac-12. Even with Oregon and Washington — the two best brand names remaining among the 22 schools still in the Pac-12 and Big 12 — there is not much on which the conference can capitalize.
Do the math. There seems to be a consensus forming among key parties that the Big 12 and Pac-12 would be worth more together, in some form, than they are separately.
“Let’s say the blood-letting stops at SC and UCLA. Right there, you can’t get an increase in rights fees because you lose the [L.A.] market,” said Bobby Hacker a West Coast attorney and sports media consultant who spent 18 years as vice president of business and legal affairs for Fox Sports.
Hacker continued: “Now you have the Pac-12, which had less of valued rights deal than any Power Five group. They’ve now lost the L.A. market. There are no teams here with which to replace it. And if you say, ‘We’re going to get San Diego State,’ there is push back in the conference because a San Diego State or Fresno State don’t have the academic cache that the schools had.
“If Oregon and Washington go, Katy bar the door. The option to my mind’s eye is Big 12 merger.”
A stand-down mentality appears to have emerged … for now.
The Pac-12 is in exclusive negotiations with Fox and ESPN. The Big 12 continues to study expansion. New Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark made that official with his “open for business” comment at his conference’s media days last week.
The Big 12 wants to be hipper, younger, cooler….
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