One of the most exciting features about Week 1 in the NFL (besides holy crap football is back!!) is getting an early glimpse at how the biggest offseason moves will change the landscape of the league and the fortunes of a franchise. Here are the moves and subsequent Week 1 matchups on my radar, along with how they could impact the outcome of these season openers.
Latest Odds:
Los Angeles Rams
+2.5
The beauty of this move? It will be felt on both sidelines in the NFL‘s kickoff game Thursday. Von Miller gives Buffalo the closer they desperately needed, after they went 0-6 in one-score games last year. Including playoffs, Miller actually had more sacks in the fourth quarter and overtime of one-score games last season (3) than the entire Bills team (2).
This is exactly the type of game where Miller’s addition could prove valuable. While Buffalo’s pass rush ranked second in the NFL in pressure rate last year, it fell off to 25th against playoff teams. Miller led the NFL in pressure rate (17%) against playoff teams in 2021 (among 47 players with 200 pass rushes in those games) and could rattle Matthew Stafford, who threw the second-most interceptions against pressure (7) last season.
The Rams, of course, will also be hurt by Miller’s loss. The one area I’m specifically looking at is Josh Allen’s ability to create havoc once he breaks the pocket against the Rams’ dominant defense. It’s truly strength meets strength. Allen threw the most touchdown passes outside the pocket (12) last year, while the Rams were the only defense that didn’t allow one in those situations. They also allowed the lowest completion rate (40%) and yards per attempt (4) outside the pocket. It’s hard to imagine Los Angeles will be as stout in that area without one of the game’s best edge rushers.
While it will take all year to see if Miller is indeed the missing piece…
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