The Rams should not be home underdogs, plus other best bets for the NFL’s opener

It feels so good to be back! Yes, it’s me, Tom Fornelli, returning to your inbox for the first time since last Friday, but while it hasn’t even been a week, it felt like a century. I missed you.

And what a night to make my return. The NFL season starts tonight! You no longer have to pretend to care about preseason games or the Detroit Lions. The real stuff starts tonight. We get our first glimpse at the defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams going against a Buffalo Bills team many believe will host the Lombardi Trophy at the end of this season. It’s an incredible matchup to start the year with, and I’ve got three bets I want to make tonight, but before we get to them, let’s catch up on all the latest news.

And now we get to do something I’ve been dying to do since February: bet an NFL game.

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

Bills at Rams, 8:20 p.m. | TV: NBC

• Key Trend: The Rams were 3-0 ATS as underdogs last season
• The Pick: Rams +2.5 (-110)

I’m starting the NFL season by putting my foot down and betting on principle. The Rams are your defending Super Bowl champions, and they begin the season as home underdogs? This is not right! I don’t care that the Bills are considered a Super Bowl favorite this season; I need to see them prove it before I bet on them as road favorites.

Also, while it’s a new season, the Rams were underdogs three times last season and covered in all three games. In fact, they’re 8-4 ATS as underdogs since the 2019 season. It’s typically been a good place to bet them. But, more than the trends, I think this is just a case of the market overvaluing a team based on preseason expectations.

The Bills are good, and barring an injury to Josh Allen, they’ll be one of the best teams in the NFL this season. But they aren’t so good that…