And just like that, the first month of the NFL season is in the books. The first two weeks were a pretty shaky start to the season, but we’ve turned things around to cap off the month, so we’re just going to say that we were still dusting off some preseason rust. Over the last two weeks, my locks have gone 6-3-1 ATS and we’re coming off a Week 4 slate that had no shortage of drama. Buffalo was able to rally from a 20-3 deficit and give us a push against Baltimore and we even had an adrenaline-pumping cover (Vikings -2.5) in London that survived thanks to an international double-doink.
This week we’re channeling our inner “Florida man” by picking two teams from the Sunshine State to cover inside my five Locks of the Week. We’ll also be targeting two divisional prime-time games. Ready? Let’s jump in!
2022 record
Regular season
Locks of the Week ATS: 8-11-1
ATS: 25-37-2
ML: 33-31
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
Latest Odds:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
-8.5
Atlanta has been a betting darling through the first month of the season. They own a 4-0 ATS record that includes a tightly contested game against the defending champion Rams and back-to-back wins against Seattle and Cleveland. However, the clock looks like it’ll strike midnight on this run in Week 5 when they visit the Buccaneers.
Even if you put the 28-3 jokes aside, Tom Brady has historically destroyed the Falcons. Brady is 10-0 in his career against Atlanta (including playoffs), making him one of just four quarterbacks in NFL history to have double-digit wins and zero losses against one opponent. Brady has also performed extremely well when his teams have lost back-to-back games like the Bucs just did. In his career, he’s 14-0 SU and 12-2 ATS immediately after a two-game losing streak. His teams also own a +19.6 points per game differential in those games.
Projected…
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