The San Francisco 49ers made a blockbuster move on Thursday, sending four draft picks to the Carolina Panthers in exchange for star running back Christian McCaffrey.
Was the deal good value? Almost certainly not. The Niners had already devoted enormous resources to the running back position over the years, signing Jerick McKinnon to a big contract, trading up for a running back in the third or fourth round twice (Joe Williams and Trey Sermon), drafting other running backs in the third (Tyrion Davis-Price) and sixth (Elijah Mitchell) rounds and adding players like Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman, Matt Breida, Jeff Wilson Jr., JaMycal Hasty, and Jordan Mason in free agency. McCaffrey is also due base salaries of at least $12 million in each of the next three seasons after this one, all but ensuring that if the Niners keep him around, he will be the league’s highest-paid player at his position.
Our friends at Sportsline also don’t see the deal making much of an impact in terms of San Francisco’s win-loss record or chances of competing for the division, playoffs, NFC title, or Super Bowl.
| Before Trade | 9.5 | 55.9% | 49.0% | 67.9% | 9.2% | 4.0% |
| w/ McCaffrey | 9.7 | 57.1% | 52.5% | 71.3% | 10.7% | 4.8% |
| Difference | 0.2 | 1.2% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
Schematically, though, this is going to be so much damn fun. Shanahan is one of the league’s most inventive play-designers, and McCaffrey has a versatility unmatched by any nominal running back in the NFL. Since he entered the league in 2017, McCaffrey ranks 11th among running backs in snaps aligned as a perimeter wide receiver, and third in snaps lined up in the slot, according to Tru Media.
Combine his flexibility with that of Deebo Samuel, as well as Kyle Juszczyk and even Brandon Aiyuk, and we are going to see the Niners get into some wild stuff. Samuel, of course, is first among all wide receivers in snaps aligned in the backfield. He’s been there on 15% of his snaps this season, which is about as often as he’s lined up in the slot (19%). Juszczyk, who is a fullback and thus plays a far lighter snap load than most runners, still checks in sixth among backfield players in snaps out wide and second in slot snaps. Aiyuk saw six carries as a rookie and five last season, and though the Niners have seemingly committed to Samuel as the gadget guy among their receiver group, they can easily shift some of that work back Aiyuk’s way if they want to.
Don’t forget, this is a team that at…
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