If you follow us at all here at Buckeyes Wire, then you know I’m a big fan of checking in on the analytics website FiveThirtyEight. I love analytics, not because they tell the whole story of what’s going on within the confines of competition, but because they at least tell part of the story that’s going on.
And while predicting which teams will make the College Football Playoff isn’t quite to that level, I’d say the folks at FiveThirtyEight have more data and formulas that I trust more than others that try to do something similar.
Along those lines, and between the same guardrails, FiveThirtyEight updated its 2022 College Football Playoff Predictions model after the initial release of the 2022 College Football rankings on Tuesday, and it did indeed change some things from before that baseline was set.
As you can imagine, teams like Ohio State, Georgia, Tennessee, Clemson, Michigan, and Alabama have some of the best odds. But it’s more than that. You can even play around with if teams win out or have a conference championship in their pocket to see how it changes all of the numbers.
Here’s where things stand after Week 9 and after all the bruhaha of the first CFP rankings on Tuesday. Oh, and we are only including teams that have a 5% chance or better just so we have some ground rules set.
No. 15 (tie) – Illinois Fighting Illini (7-1)
Ron Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
5% (⇑)
Chances if win out
96%
No. 15 (tie) – LSU Tigers (6-2)
Sep 17, 2022; Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA; LSU Tigers quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) runs the ball against the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Tiger Stadium. Credit: Scott Clause-USA TODAY Sports
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
5% (⇑)
Chances if win out
87%
No. 12 (tie) – North Carolina Tar Heels (7-1)
Oct 30, 2021; South Bend, Indiana, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels wide…
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