Tom Brady sets NFL record with 55th game-winning drive in Buccaneers’ victory over Rams

It was a milestone day for Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady. In a game where the GOAT became the first player in NFL history to reach 100K pass yards (including playoffs), he also passed Peyton Manning for the most regular-season game-winning drives in the fourth quarter/overtime in NFL history (55).

He did it in thrilling fashion, tossing a 1-yard touchdown to Cade Otton with nine seconds left to knock off the Rams, 16-13. It was the second-latest game-winning touchdown pass in Brady’s illustrious career behind a winning toss to Patriots‘ Kenbrell Thompkins in 2013 with five seconds left to beat the Saints. The drive also began with 44 seconds left, the latest start time in regulation for a game-winning drive in his career.

Most game-winning drives in NFL history — regular season

Brady, who most consider the greatest quarterback of all time, may also be labeled by some as the most clutch. But should he be?

Well, definitely not on the merits of this record alone, but let’s dig in. Game-winning drives can be a misleading stat for a number of reasons.

1. It’s a volume stat and Brady has started more games than anyone in NFL history 

2. All game-winning drives are counted the same. A 90-yard TD drive in the two-minute drill counts the same as your team getting a turnover in the opposition’s red zone, running it once, and kicking a field goal

3. A stout defense gives you a better chance of protecting a lead and securing a game-winning drive

One of my favorite NBA stats is performance on potential game-tying/go-ahead shots late in games. The NFL version of that stat looks at how often a quarterback converts when his team has a chance to tie or take the lead in the fourth quarter or overtime. Finally, a number for the debate of “which QB do you want at the end of a game?”

Brady’s teams have converted on 41.1% of their opportunities to tie or take the lead in the fourth quarter or overtime in his regular-season career. That’s slightly behind what the three other QBs with 50 career game-winning drives have done. But it’s a very small margin.

Potential game-tying/go-ahead drive chances — QBs with 50 career GW drives

That’s not to say Brady is average here. He’s still in the upper one-third of current starting QBs when it comes to converting game-tying/go-ahead drive chances.