It’s early November, and Alabama’s College Football Playoff hopes are effectively over. The Crimson Tide are 7-2 after falling to LSU 32-31 in overtime Saturday. While the first two-loss team in the four-team playoff era would likely to be from the SEC, it wouldn’t be a non-conference champion, which means it likely won’t be Alabama.
Should the Tide miss the CFP for the second time in nine seasons, its offense would be to blame. That might seem strange to say about a team that ranks sixth nationally in points per game, but a look beneath the hood shows it is not operating at the same elite level it has been over the last few years.
Nearly a decade ago, following the 2013 season in which Alabama started 11-0 but lost the Iron Bowl watched Auburn play for a national title (the Tide would go on to lose the Sugar Bowl as well to finish 11-2), Nick Saban made an important decision that helped solidify his status as the greatest college football coach of all time. He realized the way he’d been doing things on offense wouldn’t work if he wanted to continue recruiting at a level that could win national titles. He replaced offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier with Lane Kiffin, who modernized the Tide offense. It worked. Suddenly, Alabama had an offense that was just as good, if not better, than its defense. It went from having game managers at quarterback to first-round NFL Draft picks.
In Saban’s first seven seasons at Alabama, his teams produced two draft picks at receiver: first-round pick Julio Jones in 2011 and fourth-round pick Kevin Norwood in 2014. In the nine seasons since Saban modernized his offense, Alabama has had nine receivers drafted, and only two of them (2017 third-round pick ArDarius Stewart and 2022 second-round pick John Metchie) were selected after the first round. DeVonta Smith even won the Heisman Trophy in 2020, becoming the first receiver to win the award since Desmond Howard in 1991.
Those first-round picks don’t exist on the 2022 Alabama offense, however. Carrying the group are quarterback Bryce Young, running back Jahmyr Gibbs … and that’s about it. Young won the Heisman last season, but one could argue he’s been more impressive this season despite his numbers because he’s had to carry the load himself. It’s no coincidence that the biggest plays in Alabama’s biggest games have come from Young scrambling around to buy time and making something out of…
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