The Commanders have already slowed down the Eagles’ offense once, plus other best bets for Monday

We start today’s newsletter with terrible news from the University of Virginia. Late last night, three members of the Virginia Cavaliers football team were shot and killed on campus. According to school president Jim Ryan, Devin Chandler, Lavel Davis Jr. and D’Sean Perry were fatally shot. Two other players are hospitalized for gunshot wounds, one in critical condition and the other in good condition.

Local police have arrested former walk-on Christopher Darnell Jones Jr. You can keep up with the latest developments in this tragic story here. Our thoughts are with everybody in the Virginia football community, and the family and friends of all those involved.

Elsewhere in news that seems far less important:

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

Commanders at Eagles, 8:15 p.m. | TV: ESPN

• Key Trend: The Washington defense held the Eagles offense to a season-low in yards per carry (2.4) and success rate (37.1%) in Week 3.
• The Pick: Eagles Under 27.5 (-110)

At 8-0, the Eagles are the only undefeated team left in the NFL. When an undefeated team like Philadelphia is playing in a spotlight game against a division foe, it’s often the case that they are overvalued on the market. The casual money comes in on the undefeated team because they’re undefeated! Of course, they’re going to blow out the 4-5 team!

So we see point spreads climb into the double-digits, where they are now as the Eagles are 11-point favorites. I’d usually fade that number, but I’m not comfortable doing so tonight. I don’t have enough faith in Washington’s offense to score points against this Philadelphia defense. If I were to bet the Commanders, I’d be doing so because of their defense. So if I trust that unit but not the offense, the logical compromise would be to take the under on Philly’s team total, so that’s what I’m doing.

When these teams met in Week 3, the Eagles won 24-8 — but it was 24-0 at halftime, and all 24 of Philly’s points came in the second quarter. When you look at the game, Washington did a better job slowing down the Eagles than anybody else. The Commanders held the Eagles to only 2.4 yards per carry on the ground. No other defense has held them below 3.5 yards. Philly’s offensive success rate of 37.1% that day was its lowest of the season, and it sits at 47.7% in its other seven games. It’s not crazy to believe a Commanders team that kept the Eagles bottled…