The Packers won’t lean on Aaron Jones as much vs. Titans, plus other best bets for Thursday

Dearest reader, the word of the day is “value.” As I perused the board looking for picks to include in tonight’s newsletter, I was overwhelmed by the material presented to me. The hardest decision I’ve made all day was figuring out which three picks to include, and which to leave out.

In the end I decided to include my favorite play for tonight’s NFL game because, duh, and I’ve got a college football bet as well as a college basketball game. Before we get to any of those, though, let’s check out words written by other people for a little bit.

To the value!

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

Titans at Packers, 8:15 p.m. | TV: Amazon

• Key Trend: The Titans defense ranks first in the NFL with a success rate of 70.5% against the run
• The Pick: Aaron Jones Under 55.5 Rushing Yards (-117)

Everybody is wondering if the Packers are BACK after they beat the Cowboys 31-28 last week to end a five-game losing streak. Aaron Rodgers had his best game in a while. Still, while Rodgers received a lot of attention for his touchdowns, the engine of the Green Bay offense remained Aaron Jones.

Jones carried the ball 24 times for 138 yards and caught two passes for 18 yards. It was an impressive performance, seeing as Jones had been limited in practice with a shin issue during the week. That’s an issue that lingers and one that won’t have nearly as much time to recover in a short week. I suspect we’ll see a greater share of responsibilities between Jones and A.J. Dillon tonight because of it.

That, and the fact the Tennessee defense is one of the best in the league against the run, leads me to believe Jones won’t have nearly as much success on the ground. Tennessee…