A loss at Cleveland in Week 12 didn’t alter the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ spot in the NFC playoff-race field, but it did essentially codify the team’s goals for the next six weeks. Basically, it’s the division title or bust.
Last week, the playoff odds on FiveThirtyEight.com had just a two-percentage difference between the Buccaneers chances of making the postseason field (79%) and their chances of winning the NFC South (77%), which means there was only a tiny bit of wiggle room for a Wild Card berth. Now that the Buccaneers have dropped to 5-6 and remain a half-game ahead of the 5-7 Atlanta Falcons, that Wild Card margin is down to 1% (70% playoffs, 69% division title).
The problem is the NFC East, which currently holds four of the seven conference playoff spots. Those four teams will play each other multiple times over the next six weeks, which makes it nearly impossible for enough of them to crater to the extent that the Bucs or Falcons could slide up into one of the three playoff spots. The NFC South combatants also have Seattle (6-5) between them and Wild Card contention, though it’s worth noting that both the Bucs and Falcons have beaten the Seahawks head to head this year.
So circle Weeks 13, 17 and 18 on your Bucs calendars. All six of the final regular-season games are important, but those three intra-division matchups will go the farthest in determining which team emerges with what will likely be the South’s only playoff spot.
Here’s how the NFC playoff race stands after 12 weeks:
1. Philadelphia (10-1), NFC East Leader
The Eagles essentially ended Green Bay’s playoff hopes with a 40-33 win on Sunday night that wasn’t as close as the final score indicated. The Eagles had a two-score lead for most of the second half before a bit of a Jordan Love-inspired Packers rally. Philadelphia still has a showdown with the Cowboys looming in Week 16, so maintaining a two-game lead in the division is important. The Eagles also have both games remaining against the Giants, so they could determine whether or not their division rival holds on to its current spot in the playoffs. Their one-game lead over Minnesota for the only first-round bye is a little more comfortable than it sounds because they have a tiebreaker over the Vikings from a head-to-head win way back in Week Two. The Eagles can officially clinch a playoff spot this weekend with a win over Tennessee and losses by the Commanders, Seahawks and 49ers.
2. Minnesota (9-2), NFC North Leader
After a brutal loss to…
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