AFC wild card playoff race: Breaking down each team’s path to the postseason, including schedules, predictions

There were two likely reasons why the NFL expanded its playoff field from 12 to 14 teams: money and added drama and excitement during the season’s final month. 

It goes without saying that the expanded playoff field has certainly added more of the later to the end of the regular season. All but two of the AFC’s 16 teams are still mathematically alive for the right to earn one of the conference’s seven playoff spots. No team, however, has clinched a spot with four weeks to go before the postseason begins. 

Buffalo (10-3), Kansas City (10-3), Baltimore (9-4) and Tennessee (7-6) currently lead their respective divisions. The Bills have a two-game lead on the Dolphins; the Chiefs have a three-game edge on the Chargers; the Titans are two games up on the rapidly improving Jaguars. The Ravens are neck and neck with the red-hot Bengals but currently have the edge due to their Week 5 win over Cincinnati. 

The Bengals, Dolphins and Patriots would be the wild card teams if the AFC playoffs started today, with the Chargers and Jets left on the outside looking in. Two teams that are currently in the mix will be home when the playoffs begin. 

Below, we look through each wild card team’s remaining schedule and current statuses to determine which teams will move on and which ones will be watching the playoffs with the rest of us. 

Number next to team indicates its current playoff seed 

5. Cincinnati Bengals (9-4)

Remaining games

• at Buccaneers (6-7)
• at Patriots (7-6)
• Bills (10-3)
• Ravens (9-4) 

Led by Joe Burrow, Cincinnati has won an AFC-best five consecutive games. Their last win, however, came at a cost as Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins left the game early and Trey Hendrickson played through a broken wrist that will sideline him for a few games. The Bengals were able to win despite Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Mixon’s recent absences, so Cincinnati has the depth to keep the proverbial train on the tracks. 

Prediction: 11-6, No. 3 seed 

While their schedule is decidedly easier, Baltimore’s health issues at quarterback make Cincinnati the safer bet to win the North. This is anything but a slam-dunk pick, however, given Cincinnati’s remaining schedule coupled with the fact that Baltimore has one of the league’s best defenses and just got back running back J.K. Dobbins. Either way, both Cincinnati and Baltimore will be in the playoffs. 

6. Miami Dolphins (8-5)

Remaining games

• at Bills (10-3)