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2023 NFL Super Wild Card Weekend: Six rematches in opening round, lessons learned from regular-season meetings

2023 NFL Super Wild Card Weekend: Six rematches in opening round, lessons learned from regular-season meetings


This year’s NFL playoffs will feature all rematches from the 2022 regular season on Super Wild Card Weekend, according to the Elias Sports Bureau, marking the fifth time since 1970 that’s happened in the opening round.

There’s many lessons to be learned from the first matchups, and in some cases you can take the previous meetings with a grain of salt due to injuries. Let’s get you caught up on how the regular-season matchups can influence the rematches.

What happened: The 49ers swept the Seahawks this season for the first time since 2011, outscoring them 48-20. The Seahawks had one offensive touchdown in those two games, and it was with Seattle down 15 with under four minutes left in the most recent matchup.

Lesson learned: The Seahawks need to find a way to get Geno Smith some looks down the field. The 49ers won’t be giving up much on the ground, so Seattle needs big plays to D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett to pull off an upset. Smith led the NFL in touchdown passes thrown 15-plus yards downfield this season (15), but had none in two games against the 49ers. Just eight percent of his passes were thrown 15-plus yards downfield against San Francisco, compared with 20 percent against all other teams. 

What’s different: This is one of the few playoff rematches this weekend where injuries from the regular season weren’t a major factor. The 49ers only had Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey for the second regular-season matchup against Seattle and both played well in San Francisco’s win. 

Chargers at Jaguars (JAC defeated LAC 38-10 in Week 3)

What happened: The Jaguars thumped the Chargers 38-10 in Week 3 at SoFi Stadium, Jacksonville’s largest road win in 21 years. Trevor Lawrence faced little resistance, throwing three touchdown passes to three different receivers (Zay Jones, Christian Kirk and Marvin Jones Jr.), while the Chargers scored a season-low 10 points.

Lesson learned: Get Austin Ekeler the ball. Ekeler had a season low in touches (12), scrimmage yards (53), rush yards (5) and touchdowns (0) in the blowout loss. He took off after that game scoring 18 touchdowns, five more than anyone else in the NFL since Week 4. I would expect Ekeler to have more than five rush yards in the rematch.

What’s different: The Chargers should have their full arsenal of offensive weapons in this game, as they didn’t have Keenan Allen in Week 3 (hamstring), although Mike Williams is…

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