Overtime has not been kind to the Dallas Cowboys this season. Dallas went 0-2 in games that extended beyond regulation, losing to Green Bay and Jacksonville on the road. Over the past three seasons, the Cowboys only have one overtime win on their record.
If the Cowboys are forced into “extra innings” this postseason, the results could look differently. That’s because the NFL has changed the way they are handling overtime in the playoffs. The new method evens the balance and places less importance on winning the coin flip, and more on simple execution.
Under the new playoff rules, both teams are guaranteed an offensive possession. In a format that better resembles college football, the second team is allowed the opportunity to match, or even exceed, the first team’s results.
The overtime period will now be 15 minutes instead of 10. It will have three timeouts and zero coaches challenges per half. If the first team receiving the ball scores a touchdown, the second team still has a chance to answer. If the second team then scores a touchdown, a typical extra point will tie the game and a two-point conversion will win.
If the game is tied after both teams have had possessions, it will move to the familiar sudden death format of old. Next team to score wins.
Statistically, the odds no longer heavily favor the first team with the ball.
Brian Burke, the unofficial Godfather of NFL Analytics, ran it through 120,000 simulations and found the first team with the ball wins 50.29 percent of the time, considerably more even than the 57 percent advantage the old rules offered.
Yes, these rules are fair. This is the fairest of any of the overtime rules we’ve seen. The team with 1st possession wins 50.29% of the time, assuming the team with 2nd possession doesn’t go for 2 if they match a TD. And yes, that precision is needed because…
— Brian Burke (@bburkeESPN) March 30, 2022
Teams that value the informational advantage of being the second team may ignore the odds and prefer to actually kick away in OT rather than receive. The second team would be more likely to play aggressively, go for it on fourth downs, and go-for-two after a score (an action the odds favor if the second team scores)
But willingly asking to be the second team ignores the advantage the first team potentially gets regarding the number of possessions (the first team with the ball is assured to have equal or more possessions).
The Cowboys offense plays better when they are unleashed and…
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