Last year it was clear the Super Bowl matchup would hinge on one thing. The Bengals‘ porous offensive line’s ability to slow down the Rams‘ lethal pass rush, led by Aaron Donald and Von Miller. It was a matchup of the team that allowed the most sacks versus the defense that amassed the most in 2021. It doesn’t always work out like Super Bowl LVI, but this pivotal matchup turned out to be the deciding factor in the game, coming down to the very last play, when Donald slammed down Joe Burrow on a fourth-down incompletion.
Super Bowl LVII gives us several pivotal matchups to watch. Will it be a vintage ‘Showtime’ Mahomes escape, an Eagles strip-sack, Philadelphia’s zone-read option or a Jalen Hurts deep ball that decides the game? Let’s break it down:
This is the most pivotal matchup in the game in my opinion. Mahomes says his ankle will be in a better spot than the AFC Championship Game, but it definitely puts him at a disadvantage against an Eagles historic pass rush. The 49ers couldn’t even escape the NFC Championship Game with a healthy quarterback after Brock Purdy (torn UCL) and Josh Johnson (concussion) both suffered injuries at the hands of Philadelphia’s pass rush. San Francisco was under pressure on a staggering two-thirds of its dropbacks in the blowout loss.
We also know from the Chiefs‘ 31-9 Super Bowl LV loss to the Buccaneers how an effective pass rush can neutralize Mahomes and Kansas City’s explosive offense. Mahomes set a Super Bowl record for times pressured in that matchup, while playing on an injured toe, and Tampa rarely had to blitz in the victory. Unlike that game, though, the Chiefs will have a healthy offensive line in Super Bowl LVII. Still, if Mahomes has had kryptonite in his Super Bowl career, it’s been pressure. Mahomes has been pressured on nearly half his dropbacks, including Super Bowl LIV against the 49ers. His passer rating is 32.4 when pressured in the Super Bowl, and 109.8 in all other playoff rounds.
|
Comp pct |
38% |
54% |
|
TD-Int |
0-2 |
11-0 |
|
Passer rating |
32.4 |
109.8 |
|
Pressure pct |
49% |
33% |
The Eagles are probably more equipped to pressure Mahomes than any pass rush he’s ever faced. They have 78 sacks this season, the third-most in a season in NFL history, including playoffs. Their pressure rate this postseason (54%) is by far the highest in the NFL. They have the deepest pass rush in football, so there will be no shortage of options to fluster Mahomes. The key…
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