Lamar Jackson should, in theory, be enjoying an abundant market for his services. As a 26-year-old MVP quarterback, the Ravens star is precisely the kind of long-term playmaker NFL teams are quick to compensate — if not wildly overpay — provided they get the chance. But Jackson’s 2023 free agency has been a dud. Even with Baltimore using the non-exclusive franchise tag, which permits all 31 other teams to negotiate with the Pro Bowler, the QB remains unsigned and, to an extent, unwanted.
The Ravens, of course, would be glad to have him back. But they, like the rest of the NFL to this point, have failed to meet Jackson’s demands for a long-term contract. Sure, there are concerns, such as the fact Jackson has missed five games in each of the last two seasons due to injury, or the fact he leans heavily on his legs, or the fact he’s yet to have a truly productive playoff appearance. But the real holdup, as has been well documented, probably lies chiefly with the structure of his preferred contract; ever since Deshaun Watson landed a record five-year, fully guaranteed deal from the Browns last offseason, Jackson has been angling for similar security, and teams are both publicly and privately wary of continuing that trend.
It’s why multiple outlets, from ESPN to NFL Media, have now reported or speculated that Jackson could end up sitting out the 2023 season entirely. There’s no current indication, even from desperately QB-needy teams, that Jackson is a viable target. Jackson, meanwhile, has gone public with a trade request from the Ravens, suggesting he’s already disenfranchised with Baltimore’s efforts to retain him. Assuming neither side budges, the reasoning goes that the QB could simply refuse to sign the tag, avoid penalties for holding out, and attempt to reenter the market in 2024.
Here’s a brief overview of why Jackson should consider this route, and why he shouldn’t:
Why sitting out could work
A year from now, other young MVP types like Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts will presumably have signed their own lucrative deals — some of which could normalize the stronger guarantees Jackson is reportedly seeking in contract talks. And if they don’t? Well then Jackson will have a more realistic model for getting his own money.
He’s also far more likely to be a true free agent, seeing as the Ravens would likely be required to use a second straight franchise tag if…
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