Over- and undervalued, long shots and ‘odd but correct’ rankings

It’s mid-April, which means it’s time for the first college football FPI rankings.

With the FPI rankings officially out, our writers tackled what the offseason is meant for: debate and speculation.

Which teams are over- and underranked by the FPI? Outside the top 25, which teams have the best chance at proving the preseason rankings wrong? And, what did the FPI get absolutely right despite the season being months away?

We’ve got you covered on all of these topics as we forecast the 2023 season.

A quick reminder on how the FPI works from ESPN’s Seth Walder: The Football Power Index is our season-long ratings and projections system. In the preseason it relies on past performance on offense and defense, returning and transfer production and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating. We then use those ratings to simulate the season 20,000 times, resulting in our projections.

Which top-25 team do you think the FPI is most undervaluing?

Alex Scarborough: Last I checked, USC has the reigning Heisman Trophy winner at quarterback in Caleb Williams. And I know things change in the transfer portal quickly, but coach Lincoln Riley continues to load up on proven talent by bringing in Dorian Singer from Arizona, MarShawn Lloyd from South Carolina and Anthony Lucas from Texas A&M. While the Pac-12 is going to be a challenge this season, I think the Trojans have a team on paper that should be in the top three nationally.

Chris Low: Jim Harbaugh has perhaps his most talented team with an experienced quarterback and offensive line, dynamic running backs and an influx of key transfers, especially on defense. So why is Michigan not somewhere in the top four (and comfortably projected to be in the College Football Playoff) after winning the past two Big Ten championships and appearing in the playoff each of the past two seasons? That’s not to say landing at No. 6 is a complete slap in the face, but this is a team that has all the pieces in place to win it all in 2023. A case could be made that the Wolverines should be No. 1, or at least No. 2,…