The 2023 NFL Draft is unlike any draft we’ve seen in recent years. There are several high-profile quarterbacks — five to be exact, with four of them considered possible/likely top-10 picks — and a whole bunch of … stuff. It’s a very deep draft class, but the top-heavy talent is not there.
And when the quarterback discussion is framed in a broader context it makes more sense: this draft simply isn’t good. The big four quarterbacks — Will Levis, Anthony Richardson, C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young, if you prefer in alphabetical order by last name, as I do — are enticing but not overwhelming.
Some expectation exists of these four quarterbacks going with the top four overall picks on Thursday or, at bare minimum if you believe some subsets of whatever Draft Twitter is these days, three in the top five.
Before looking at how rare that would be, let’s look at this draft class as a whole. Trying to find a comparable class for this group is tough. Maybe 2018 could work (four quarterbacks, all with a host of question marks plus one of THOSE running backs) but that draft had elite blue-chip defenders (Denzel Ward, Bradley Chubb, Roquan Smith, Minkah Fitzpatrick) and a superstar/can’t miss offensive lineman in Quenton Nelson.
Maybe it’s a case of the pandemic having a direct-line effect on the quality of draft classes we’re getting? Logically it makes sense: a slew of elite players bolted early (some after not playing in 2020) during the 2021 NFL Draft. Eight of the top 15 players in that draft already made a Pro Bowl. Of the seven who didn’t: Jaylen Waddle, Jaycee Horn, DeVonta Smith and Justin Fields. The other three are Zach Wilson, Trey Lance and Alijah Vera-Tucker. Quibble over Mac Jones Pro Bowl all you want, it’s a loaded draft class.
2023 was a drop-off in terms of top-tier talent from previous draft classes. But the last two years have been real steep dips. Since 2014, NFL.com has maintained a consistent grading approach: if you are graded 6.70 or higher, you are considered someone who can start Year 1. The number of Year 1 starters varied, but we saw a massive dip in 2020, with just 6.70 or greater grades for 15 prospects.
In 2021, that number dropped to 11 players before bottoming out at eight last season and then staying flat this year.
CBS Sports.com, Grading data via NFL.com
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