2023 NFL Draft: Ranking the quarterback prospects based on a college football performance formula

Every year, roughly 45 trillion words are written on the internet dedicated to the NFL Draft. Whether it’s scouting reports, trade rumors or mock drafts, it’s a never-ending supply of content. Of those 45 trillion words, roughly 35 trillion of them are about the quarterbacks in the class. No matter how strong or weak the class, it’s the position that draws the most attention because it’s the most critical position in football if not all of sport. So, every year the position is “overdrafted” because it’s nearly impossible to win a Super Bowl without a franchise QB, and landing one changes the direction of franchises and lives.

It’s also the most difficult position to project from the college level to the NFL level. The differences in offenses run across the country at the college level and the level of competition are just some of the variables one must consider. Plus, while physical talent is imperative, the QB position requires other intangibles to succeed — some of which can be measured, many of which cannot.

So it becomes nearly impossible to determine which quarterbacks are bound for NFL success and which will enter the eternally expanding group of busts. But what if I told you I had cracked the code? What if I said that, for over a decade, I have been working on a formula that could determine which college QB is the most likely to move on and tear the league apart? Would that be of interest to you?

Of course it would! Unfortunately, I haven’t done it. I’ve been working on the formula for years but have not cracked the code. However, while there is no clear answer, if my formula has shown promise in any area, it’s identifying which QBs are highly unlikely to succeed.

While I won’t get into specifics, I look at the statistical performance of QBs as passers in specific situations that correlate with what will be asked of them in the NFL. Those areas are against top-50 defense (using SP+), passes in third-and-long (7+ yards) and fourth-down situations and in the red zone. Generally speaking, if a college player doesn’t perform well in these areas, he won’t perform well in the NFL.

I then compile the scores of the draft class — unfortunately, I can only do FBS QBs due to the lack of necessary data for FCS and below — and compare them against their contemporaries to find a percentile score. I began doing this in 2012, and in that time, only two QBs who finished with a…