Patriots would do well to hold their cards

Sometime just before 10 p.m. Eastern time Thursday night the Patriots should be on the clock to make their first-round selection. Whether Bill Belichick opts to do so is far less certain.

We all know Belichick is the most willing trade partner in the NFL come draft weekend, and many prognosticators have described the current class as lacking in true blue-chip talent at the top. Combining those two factors makes it easy to project another trade for New England with the idea toward finding similarly talented players further down in the first round while adding some extra picks elsewhere.

The theory makes sense, but there are some flaws to it as well. First, assuming the idea of there being a limited number of players worthy of first-round grades is the consensus, wouldn’t it be difficult to find a trade partner willing of offer fair market value to move up? And more importantly, if there isn’t an abundance of high-end talent, wouldn’t it make sense to move up, or at least stay put to maximize the pick?

The latter point is where I currently lean. By no means do I consider myself a draftnik but I do agree with those who feel the high-end talent is lacking in this class. That said, I’d like to find as much quality as possible and by staying put at 14 the Patriots should be able to find a good football player at a position of need.

This mindset is only enhanced by the expectation that quarterbacks – as many as four and possibly five – could fly off the board in the top 13. It’s highly doubtful that happens, but three is a safe bet and four are likely to go before the Patriots pick. That would lead to greater odds that one of the players the Patriots identified as being worthy of selection would have a chance of being available.

In addition, part of the package included in the Aaron Rodgers trade to the Jets (more on that later) was a swap of the 13th and 15th picks between the teams. That means the tackle-needy Jets now drop a spot behind New England while the Packers,…