The best NFL Draft prop bet revolves around Big Ten players, plus other top picks for Thursday

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All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

The NFL Draft, 8 p.m. | TV: ESPN/NFL Network

• Key Trend: There have been an average of six Big Ten players selected in the 1st round over the last five drafts.
• The Pick: Under 8.5 Big Ten players selected in 1st round (+200)

I’m one of those nerds who is always excited about the NFL Draft, but there’s an extra level to it tonight. Typically, when we reach this point, there are always surprises, but you have an overall idea of what to expect. That isn’t the case this year. 

While the prevailing theory is Bryce Young will go first overall to Carolina, it’s anybody’s guess after that. Some people are convinced the Texans will take a QB, while some think they don’t want anybody but Young. Then there’s the theory that the Cardinals are desperate to trade down from No. 3, but nobody wants to trade up. While there are plenty of good players in the class, there aren’t a lot of prospects considered no-doubters, which means things could go in many different directions.

But if there’s one thing I’m confident in, it’s that we won’t see nine players from the Big Ten drafted tonight. Looking at the last 10 drafts, 51 Big Ten players have been chosen in the first round, or 5.1 per season. That has increased in recent years, but even over the last five, there has been an average of six. Tonight I’m confident we’ll see at least six. Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud, Paris Johnson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba should all go. I also think we’ll see Illinois’ Devon Witherspoon, Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski and Iowa’s Lukas Van Ness taken. After that, I’m not so sure.

There’s a strong chance Penn State corner Joey Porter Jr. goes, but that brings us to seven. Maryland’s Deonte Banks could bring us to eight. Who’s the ninth player? Iowa’s Sam LaPorta is in the mix, but I’m not convinced we’ll see many tight ends go tonight. A few defensive linemen could go, like Michigan’s Mazi Smith or Northwestern’s Adetomiwa Adebawore, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

No matter how I break it down, I have a hard time seeing more than eight go tonight, so of all the props on the board, this is the one I feel the best about. But, again, tonight could go a million different directions, so…