NFL 2023 way-too-early Week 1 odds, picks: Expect Jets’ Aaron Rodgers era to begin with loss to Bills

With the NFL schedule release now official (here’s a look), we can check out some lines for Week 1 of the 2023 season. In fact, Caesars Sportsbook has lines out for multiple weeks if you want to bet ahead. Even though we are months away from the regular season, there’s value to be found in some of these lines.

Sure, you could get bitten by a preseason injury or two, but these lines are absolutely going to move by the time we reach September. Locking in a few picks now could be smart. Below, let’s examine my against-the-spread picks for all 16 Week 1 games, and my top five ATS picks as well. 

All odds come courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

2022 Top five picks ATS record: 43-45-1
2022 Overall ATS record: 135-129-7
2022 Straight up record: 177-92-2

Thursday, Sept. 7, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

Amazing. The Lions went from having zero prime-time games in 2022 to kicking off the season against the reigning Super Bowl champions in the first game of the year. I am just as intrigued by the Lions as everyone else. I even think they are the new “America’s Team.” But I’m also wary of giving this squad their flowers too early.

The Chiefs are the better team, and are probably going to win this game. Another reason I’m going to lock in this pick right now is because I’m completely sold this line is going to move in the Chiefs’ favor by September. Give me the seven points before it’s too late. 

This is the first matchup between Jared Goff and Patrick Mahomes since that epic 54-51 win for the Los Angeles Rams back in 2018. Defending Super Bowl champions are 14-4 in the NFL Kickoff Game since 2004, and the Chiefs have won eight straight Week 1 games — the longest active streak in the NFL. Mahomes has been magnificent in season openers. He’s 5-0 with 19 total touchdowns and zero turnovers.

The pick: Chiefs -7
Projected score: Chiefs 31-23

Sunday, Sept. 10, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)