Week 12 kicks off on Thanksgiving with the Lions playing host to the Packers in a bit of a role reversal in this rivalry. It’s the Lions who are red hot, off to their best 10-game start (8-2) since 1962, when their defensive coordinator was Don Shula. They will also be going for their first five-game win streak against the Packers since the early 1950s when they won 11 in a row vs. Green Bay.
It’ll be a tall task for the Packers to take down the Lions, as Detroit won 34-20 at Lambeau Field in Week 4, and it wasn’t as close as the score indicated. The Lions jumped out to a 27-3 halftime lead and outgained the Packers 284-23 in the first half.
It’s not expected to be particularly close this time around, either. The Lions are currently 7.5-point favorites. If the line moves to 8, it would be Detroit’s largest spread as a favorite against Green Bay since 1992, a game they lost as a 10-point favorite to Brett Favre in his fifth career start.
How to watch
- Date: Thursday, Nov 23 | Time: 12:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Ford Field (Detroit)
- TV: Fox | Stream: fubo (try for free)
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- Odds: Lions -7.5, O/U 47
When the Packers have the ball
Green Bay was dominated at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball when these teams met in Week 4. On offense, it could mean constant pressure from Aidan Hutchinson and Co. again vs. Jordan Love, who was pressured on a season-high 49% of his dropbacks against Detroit, despite being blitzed just twice all game. The Lions four-man rush just feasted. Green Bay gained negative 6 yards in that game on the 20 dropbacks when Love was under pressure. I repeat, negative 6 yards.
One of the reasons Detroit’s defense thrived early in the season was by cutting down its blitz rate significantly from last year. That’s changed, though, in the last month as the Lions defense has ranked last in the NFL in scoring defense since Week 7 while going from the fifth-lowest to fifth-highest blitz rate in the league in that span. I’d be surprised if Lions DC Aaron Glenn kept dialing up blitzes given the recent results and what their standard rush did in Week 4. If the blitz trend continues, though, it could open the door for Love and Co. to capitalize. Love has shortened up and been more polished vs….
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