The NFL playoff picture continues to evolve as we enter Week 13 of the regular season, but the race for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft is becoming much more clear. Following the conclusion of Week 12, there are three teams with the best chances to win the Caleb Williams or Drake Maye sweepstakes: The Chicago Bears, Arizona Cardinals and Bill Belichick’s New England Patriots. Which squad will “out-lose” the others over the next six weeks?
Below, we will break down the percentage chances for each team to win the No. 1 overall pick, according to SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh’s simulations, along with their chances to secure a top-three pick. Let’s start with the most interesting team in this race.
Chicago Bears (and their pick from the Carolina Panthers)
Odds to land No. 1 overall pick: 58.4%
Eight months ago, the Bears sold the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft to the Panthers for wide receiver D.J. Moore, two picks in the 2023 draft, Carolina’s 2024 first-round pick and a 2025 second-round pick. The Bears, who currently sit at 4-8, again have a shot at the top pick in the draft, but the majority of their chance comes from the pick they got from the Panthers, who are 1-10!
Frank Reich has already been fired, and No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young has struggled mightily. The Panthers are currently the lone one-win team in the NFL, and they don’t even own their first-round pick! Talk about a nightmare scenario.
Since the Bears own two numbers in this lotto drawing, they have the best chance to earn that top pick. According to SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh, the Bears have a 58.4% chance to win the No. 1 overall pick, and a 99% chance of earning a top-three pick.
Bears remaining schedule
- Current record: 4-8
- Projected final record: 6-11
Panthers remaining schedule
- Current record: 1-10
- Projected final record: 3-14
Arizona Cardinals
Odds to land No. 1 overall pick: 22%
The Cardinals entered 2023 as the preseason favorites to be the worst team in the league. However, Arizona has somewhat overperformed. Joshua Dobbs kept the Cards competitive through the early stages of the regular season, and now Kyler Murray is back under center. He led a game-winning drive against the Falcons in his first start, came up just short against the Houston Texans in Week 11 and then was blown out by the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday. Tankathon believes the Cardinals have the…
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