College Football Playoff prediction: Why Texas deserves to be part of four-team field over Alabama, Georgia

The College Football Playoff Committee faces its most high-profile decision since the format started in 2014. After Alabama shocked Georgia 27-24 in the SEC Championship Game, the Tide, Bulldogs and Texas Longhorns find themselves tied at 12-1 

If projections go to plan, three College Football Playoff spots will be all but set. Michigan, Florida State and Washington could be undefeated conference champions with unimpeachable CFP cases. That leaves the three superpowers all stumping for inclusion the final spot in the College Football Playoff. 

But while the decision will be controversial, it shouldn’t be difficult. Texas should be in. Alabama and Georgia should be out. 

If we need a refresher, let’s look at the College Football Playoff’s own criteria. 

From the bylaws: “The CFP Committee will consider four criteria when teams are deemed comparable: championships won, strength of schedule, head-to-head competition and comparative outcomes of common opponents.” 

First, let’s look at championships. Alabama and Texas have one. Georgia does not. 

Second, strength of schedule. Texas ranks No. 11 in FPI strength of schedule. Alabama ranks No. 31. Georgia sits at No. 61. 

From a head-to-head perspective, Georgia is 0-1 against the field. Alabama is 1-1. Texas is 1-0. The Longhorns’ win against Alabama came by 10 points on the road. The Tide’s win came by three at a neutral site. 

Finally, there’s comparative matchups of common opponents. Georgia was slightly more impressive against Ole Miss and Tennessee than Alabama. Texas did not have any common opponents with Alabama or Georgia, other than Alabama itself… which Texas beat, and Georgia lost. 

By three of the four criteria, Georgia doesn’t stand a chance. The Bulldogs have ranked No. 1 for nearly the entire season, but it’s hard to make a serious case that the committee should just ignore a game that happened hours ago. 

Then the argument shifts to Alabama vs. Texas. Luckily, there’s a useful data point: the head-to-head. The Longhorns went on the road and handed Alabama its first home nonconference loss since Louisiana-Monroe in 2007. The 34-24 victory was decisive, and still remains perhaps the best win in all of college football this season. Add a better strength-of-schedule and case only grows. 

Granted, the committee could argue that Alabama has grown since the loss. But just this week, NC State…