NFL Week 13 odds, spread, picks: Broncos stay hot in Houston, Rams continue late playoff push vs. Browns

Ladies and gentlemen, we’re on a heater. Coming out of the Thanksgiving holiday, I’ve logged back-to-back weeks with double-digit ATS wins. Since Week 11, I’ve gone 23-6-1 ATS, which includes a 12-3-1 ATS run last week, which was predominantly owned by the favorites pulling through. While that’s a superb run, there’s still room for improvement, particularly with my locks of the week, which went just 2-3-1 in Week 12. 

I’ll look to keep the hot streak going while zeroing in my five locks as we all pivot to a Week 13 slate where I’ve put a handful of underdogs in the crosshairs as potential covers. As always, let’s kick things off with my five locks of the week. 

2023 record

Regular season
Locks of the Week ATS: 31-29-1
ATS: 96-77-7
ML: 115-65

All NFL odds via SportsLine consensus odds.

• Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video)

As much as this slate will be dominated by the matchup between the 49ers and Eagles, this other game between an NFC West and NFC East team is fascinating as well. The Thursday opener is a chance for Dallas to continue to flex as the best home team in the league. The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS at home this season and have an average margin of victory of 29 points! Meanwhile, Seattle — losers in three of its last four — needs a win here to help stay in the playoff picture. 

Unfortunately for Pete Carroll’s team, this smells like another loss. The offense — specifically Geno Smith — has regressed from 2022 and will now have to face a lethal Dallas defense that leads the league in pressure rate and is second in sack rate. The Seahawks are allowed pressure at the eighth-highest rate this season, so this could be a game where Smith is under siege on almost every dropback. Meanwhile, Dak Prescott completion percentage (70%) and TD-INT ratio (23-6) rank No. 2 in the league this year, and will square up against a Seattle defense that is allowing 27.8 points per game in November (30th in the NFL). Another Dallas blowout incoming.

Projected score: Cowboys 30, Seahawks 17
The pick: Cowboys -9