We have to ask: What is wrong with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs?
That home loss to the Raiders was about as ugly as we’ve seen in the Mahomes-Andy Reid era, and it’s probably the single worst outing of Mahomes’ career from an individual play perspective.
Ever since the five-turnover slopfest loss to the Broncos in Denver in Week 8, the Chiefs are 18th in offensive EPA per play and 20th in EPA per dropback. That’s striking.
Starting with that 24-9 loss in Denver, the Chiefs are 3-5. The Week 12 win in Las Vegas was the only contest in which they scored 30 points in that stretch.
With the playoffs imminent, let’s answer that vital question in the lede.
On Mahomes’ play and the Chiefs’ offensive identity
I’m starting here because the Chiefs’ almost unrecognizable offensive problems have truthfully not all been due to Mahomes’ surroundings. He has not played close to his normal standards.
Starting in Week 8, the two-time Super-Bowl winning quarterback has 12 big-time throws to 11 turnover-worthy plays, including a whopping five (the most in a single game in his career to date) in the Christmas Day defeat at the hands of the Raiders.
On the season, Mahomes’ BTT rate is 3.8%, which is tied for 23rd among passers. And there are 20 qualifying quarterbacks with TWP rates lower than his current 3.1%.
During his erupt-onto-the-scene 2018 campaign, when he cruised to the MVP award, his TWP rate was 3.2%. But he countered that with a monstrous 7.3% BTT rate.
Mahomes has gone from one of the most aggressive downfield throwers, which exquisitely…
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