Ravens Ranked As Second-Most-Likely Team to Win the Super Bowl
NFL Network analytics expert Cynthia Frelund used her model to rank the eight remaining teams in terms of their likelihood of winning the Super Bowl.
The Ravens were No. 2 with a 23..3 percent chance of taking home the Lombardi trophy. The San Francisco 49ers, the top seed in the NFC, were No. 1 at 27 percent.
“While the Ravens were resting, their playoff path became easier, thanks to losses by AFC North rivals Cleveland and Pittsburgh, with the Browns’ exit specifically increasing Baltimore’s odds to win the AFC,” Frelund wrote. “Add in the return of tight end Mark Andrews from an ankle injury that kept him sidelined over the team’s final six games, and things get even better for the Ravens.”
Looking ahead to Saturday’s game against Houston, Frelund wrote: “[The Texans] are great at limiting yards after the catch over expectation. Next Gen Stats shows that in the regular season, Houston allowed just 130 YACOE, which ranked fourth. For context, the 16th-ranked team (the Eagles) allowed 233.”
Frelund gave the Texans a 1.9 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl, the worst odds among the eight teams.
“Dealing with the pressure brought by the Ravens, who topped the NFL in both pressures (283) and sacks (60) in the regular season, is going to be one of the biggest keys of Houston’s divisional round matchup with Baltimore,” Frelund wrote. “To that end, it’s worth noting that Stroud was 4 of 7 passing for 109 yards with two TDs on the run in Saturday’s win over Cleveland. “As for Houston’s ground game, Devin Singletary recorded +23 rush yards over expected (more than he did in any regular-season game) on 13 carries for 66 yards and a touchdown on Saturday, with a per-carry mark of 5.1 yards. And that was against a Browns defense ranked fourth-best in EPA allowed against the run in the regular season.
“If there’s one thing Houston must…
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