Ask The Old Guy: School’s back

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It’s been a minute since I’ve sent in a question. I have to be honest; I’ve been watching from a distance and not saying too much with all the recent churn. I’m cautiously optimistic. I’ve been impressed with the moves the new FO has made (I still think they need another CB), and I like the energy Canales brings. Anyway, if you had to guess where Dan Morgan’s willingness to trade is, where would it be? — Dan, Venetia, PA

Welcome back, Dan. We missed you. I was beginning to worry and was considering a search party, but frankly, I’m not sure how safe I feel in the wilds of Western Pennsylvania.

Things can always change, but my sense of it at the moment is that Morgan’s going to lean conservative with his draft picks, especially this offseason. (And like you, I think a cornerback is among the things they still need.)

I don’t think Morgan is completely opposed to trading, but there have been some moves in recent years that were perhaps a little cavalier with draft picks. I’ve always been of the opinion that if you can turn a sixth or a seventh into a useful NFL player, that’s good business since sixes and sevens rarely pan out. But when you start sending twos and threes and fours for people who aren’t difference-makers, that’s different. A team needs price-controlled labor to keep the books in balance, so contributors on rookie contracts are necessary to keep from having to overspend on free agents.

The Panthers spent heavily on free agents this offseason because they needed to, but this isn’t going to be the norm. It can’t be. That’s why I think Dan’s going to be greedy with his draft picks in the near term; he knows he needs several of them to hit.

The Panthers may not have a first, but with 33, 39, and 65 on the second day of the draft, they ought to be able to add three players who can help this team, even if they’re not immediate starters. The Panthers filled a lot of vacancies in free agency, so they don’t have big glaring needs, but there are still a number of obvious positions where they need help. So trading up seems unlikely.

Now, will they trade down? Maybe. If there are quarterbacks at the top of the second round, and people get itchy for one and want to overpay for the privilege of picking 33rd, perhaps. But those kinds of deals are actually kind of rare and not as lucrative as you think.

Teams have only actively traded for the 33rd…