The 2024 NFL Draft is only 10 days away, and over the next week or so, we could start to see a hint of what’s going to happen from the betting odds market. Last year, Bryce Young was -310 to go No. 1 overall two weeks out and -400 at this point of the news cycle, but within two days he jumped to -1200 and wound up at -2400 by Monday of draft week. Travon Walker was only +300 to go No. 1 overall 10 days away from the 2022 NFL Draft, but those odds saw a big shift the weekend before the draft as the betting market deduced from reporting how the Jaguars would land.
But the betting market isn’t infallible, as bettors sometimes have trouble correctly parsing between fact and fiction when gathering information. Last year, internet rumors caused chaos with expectations for Will Levis, who became the favorite to go No. 4 overall 10 days out and stayed there into draft week, which he also started as the odds-on favorite to go No. 2 overall at -120. Levis instead ended up being selected with the first pick of the second round when all was said and done. C.J. Stroud, who was -105 to be taken No. 2 two weeks away from the draft, ended up at +550 the Monday of draft week and cashed big for those who had faith the Levis rumors were all smoke.
This year there’s absolutely no mystery with the No. 1 overall pick, where Caleb Williams is -10000 to be selected. That means that bettors have to risk $100 to win $1 if they want to back Williams as the first pick of the 2024 draft. The intrigue starts at No. 2, where Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and even J.J. McCarthy have had speculation they could be the pick for the Washington Commanders. But what does the betting market expect? We’ll get into that and more below as we attempt to read the tea leaves and let you know what the people paying the closest attention to draft buzz think could happen in just 10 days.
Jayden Daniels goes No. 2 overall … right?
At the beginning of April, we did a draft props episode on the Pick Six Podcast that happened to capture something curious: Odds for Drake Maye to go No. 2 overall dropped in the few hours between my pod preparations and when we recorded the episode, and we wondered if it was a sign Washington could be leaning toward the North Carolina QB. But that random movement seems to have turned out to be a mirage, as Daniels solidified himself as the top option over the following two weeks.
With 10 days out…
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