NFL season win totals are some of the most fun action to wager on — it’s a season-long gambit with week-to-week intensity because of how much every game matters for the final season record. With the explosion of legalized sports gambling, win totals have been out for a while now, but we can’t really get crystallized and concrete numbers until the NFL schedule is released.
With the schedule out and every angle of the 2024 NFL season under full scrutiny, we can finally get down to the business of betting season-long win totals. I’ll revisit these in August before the season begins, but we’ll try and find some value earlier in the offseason.
I’m using DraftKings for win totals for ease of use, but you should absolutely shop around and get the best number, so let’s break them down division by division. Check the rest of the divisions here as they’re released:
AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West
Before we dive in, a couple quick notes. One, we’re picking every team but not betting every team. Two, any best bets will be denoted in bold, etc. Three, you should probably avoid actually betting on overs at this point because of how quickly injuries can flip the fortunes of NFL teams.
Let’s get to it.
AFC South
Over 9.5 (-140) / Under 9.5 (+120)
This won’t be a popular opinion, but there might be a little more reason to worry about the Texans than the general consensus out there. Let’s start with Houston’s 2023 season, which is primarily highlighted by a historic rookie performance out of C.J. Stroud. The Texans were one of the best stories of the season, but they also went 7-3 in one-score games and outperformed their point differential by almost a full game. This team had a losing record in November after falling to the Panthers (!).
Like the 2022 Jaguars, they got white hot down the stretch against some questionable teams and won the division before beating Joe Flacco in a playoff game. I think Stroud’s incredible and DeMeco Ryans has serious staying power. They added Stefon Diggs and Danielle Hunter in the offseason and only really lost a few role players on defense.
I’m bullish on the Texans but not to the extent of the market: Stroud is…
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