NFL season win totals are some of the most fun action to wager on — it’s a season-long gambit with week-to-week intensity because of how much every game matters for the final season record. With the schedule out and every angle of the 2024 NFL season under full scrutiny, we can finally get down to the business of betting season-long win totals. I’ll revisit these in August before the season begins, but we’ll try and find some value earlier in the offseason.
I’m using DraftKings for win totals for ease of use, but you should absolutely shop around and get the best number, so let’s break them down division by division. Check the rest of the divisions here:
Before we dive in, a couple quick notes. One, we’re picking every team but not betting every team. Two, any best bets will be denoted in bold, etc. Three, you should probably avoid actually betting on overs at this point because of how quickly injuries can flip the fortunes of NFL teams.
Let’s get to it.
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers
Over 11.5 (+105) / Under 11.5 (-125)
No surprise to see the 49ers match the Chiefs with the highest win total in the NFL, albeit with a juiced under. The 49ers have the best roster but some question marks linger, including the status of Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. Ricky Pearsall is in the fold and Jawuan Jennings just got reupped. I would guess everyone is back for 2024 as the Niners go all in, but there’s some fragility to the roster that you can really only erase by having someone like Patrick Mahomes on your team. Two of the Niners’ three playoff games were one-score games (2-1 with a VERY tough loss) but in the regular season they actually went 2-3 and mostly dominated teams. San Francisco underperformed its win expectancy and still won 12 games. The Niners catch the AFC East and NFC North along with the Chiefs, Cowboys and Buccaneers this year, so it’s not an easy schedule. But this team remains loaded — you won’t catch a 10.5 on Kyle Shanahan’s squad, but you won’t catch me taking the under on this team at any point either.
Pick: 49ers Over 11.5 (+105)
Los Angeles Rams
Over 8.5 (-140) / Under 8.5 (+120)
This is a best bet. Aaron Donald retiring hurts for sure. But the Rams have just selected a first-round pick for the first time since Jared Goff. Think about that! With their first they grabbed Jared Verse then added Braden Fiske in combo to try and recreate some lesser percentage…
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