“Generally when you’re in 12 [personnel, with one running back and two tight ends], if you’ve got two ‘Y’ [in-line] tight ends, you’re going to get base defense. When he’s in the game, we’re going to get nickel as if we’re in 11 [personnel, with one back, one tight ends, and three receivers]. So it’s just a different style player. He’s 6-3, just under 250. He’s not a receiver, but he’s more of a receiver. We’re not going to be having him block a lot of six-techs [defensive ends].”
That’s what Bills general manager Brandon Beane said last May, after the team selected Utah tight end Dalton Kincaid with the 25th pick in the 2023 draft. The idea was to match Kincaid with Dawson Knox, who had signed a four-year, $52 million contract extension. The Bills had barely run any 12 personnel in the 2022 season, so this amounted to a paradigm shift.
It worked under Dorsey. From Weeks 1-10, Allen completed 62 of 82 passes for 667 yards, 389 air yards, five touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 109.1.
Once Brady became the offensive coordinator through the end of the Bills’ season, Allen completed 21 of 38 passes in 12 personnel for 245 yards, 88 air yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 101.3.
A (perhaps the) primary reason for this drop was that Knox was on injured reserve with a wrist issue and he also dealt with an illness in the second half of the season. With both Kincaid and Knox healthy, who knows how Brady’s offense will be different?
We do know that under Brady, and when both tight ends were on the field, the Bills had success aligning both Kincaid and Knox in bunch formations for big plays. One was this 51-yard completion to Kincaid against the Patriots in Week 17. New England was in Cover-0, and Kincaid ran the deep crosser, while Knox stayed underneath with the release route to the flat. With Sherfield running up the numbers, it’s easy to see how the coverage got stretched beyond its ability to keep Allen’s targets under control.
The 29-yard touchdown pass to Kincaid in the wild-card round against the Steelers was another example of 12 personnel working for the Bills, and Allen mentioned it to me as one of his favorite plays of the 2023 season. When Pittsburgh dropped its safeties to the numbers, Allen and Brady both knew that Kincaid would be open up the middle, with only linebacker Myles Jack to keep up with him. Buffalo’s mirrored concepts outside kept the…
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