Playing quarterback in the National Football League is one of the hardest things to do in professional sports.
That’s why there is so much volatility at the position in terms of year-to-year production, even for the NFL’s best. Just look at Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. He won the league’s MVP award in 2022 after leading the NFL in passing touchdowns (41) and passing yards (5,250), but he took a noticeable step back in 2023, throwing under 30 touchdowns (27) and barely over 4,000 yards (4,183).
With that in mind, 20 of the NFL’s projected starting quarterbacks are set to either make noticeable improvement or undergo a noticeable regression in 2024. The improvement group will be sorted into two categories, one designating a 2024 season improvement as a result of returning from injury, like New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers — who played four snaps in 2023 before an Achilles injury ended his season — or for natural improvement for reasons surrounding their experience, their supporting cast, etc.
Obviously 12 NFL teams‘ starting quarterbacks are being excluded from this exercise, but it is for specific reasons. Rookies clearly can’t be judged on their NFL improvement or regression because it’s their first season, so that precludes Caleb Williams (Bears), Jayden Daniels (Commanders), Drake Maye (Patriots), J.J. McCarthy (Vikings) and Bo Nix (Broncos) from these groupings. There is Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith, whose on-field supporting cast hasn’t changed that much, but his coaching staff has, thus creating uncertainty about where to put him.
New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones returns from a torn ACL, but we may have already seen the best of him in 2022. There are teams in quarterback competitions like the Pittsburgh Steelers (Russell Wilson vs. Justin Fields), Las Vegas Raiders (Gardner Minshew vs. Aidan O’Connell) and the Minnesota Vikings (Sam Darnold vs. McCarthy). Then you have quarterbacks like Josh Allen (Bills), Dak Prescott (Cowboys) and Matthew Stafford (Rams), whose situations have marginally changed from last season, thus making their 2024 season projections similarly consistent to their 2023 output. Yes, Buffalo did trade Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans, but he wasn’t a significant factor in their offense the second half of the 2023 season (Week 10 through the postseason), recording only one receiving touchdown and…
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