What an Alvin Kamara extension with the Saints may look like

Will Alvin Kamara get a new contract with the New Orleans Saints? What could it look like? The team’s star running back left mandatory minicamp practices early last week after arriving at a roadblock in contract talks. With those negotiations falling quiet, what sort of figures could they be sending back and forth? What is a realistic extension for Kamara?

Let’s look at the numbers. While Kamara did sign a five-year, $75 million extension back in 2020, he’s earned only $40.1 million of that since putting pen to paper. That’s an average of just over $10 million per year in new money. This year he’s bringing in $10.2 million in base salary with another $1.6 million made up of workout and roster bonuses. And that gives us an idea of where to look in modeling his new contract.

Crucially, there is only about $10.1 million in dead money counting against the 2025 salary cap that will be left behind if Kamara is released or traded next year. The Saints have accepted higher dead money cap hits than that in recent years so Kamara doesn’t have a ton of leverage from a financial standpoint. At the same time, the Saints don’t have another running back they can anoint as Kamara’s replacement.

We probably shouldn’t compare Kamara to players who signed new deals in free agency  — veterans his age like Derrick Henry and Aaron Jones only got $8 million and $7 million per year, respectively, and odds are that’s what another team would pay Kamara. It’s a big part of him seeking a new deal with the Saints rather than settling for trying his odds on the open market.

One comparable situation: Joe Mixon, who was traded to the Houston Texans before signing a two-year, $19.75 million extension with his new team. That carried $13 million in guarantees. If we’re the Saints, we’re proposing a two-year deal worth $20 million with $12 million in guarantees. That’s beneath what Kamara’s agent should be looking for, but it’s a solid starting position. His agents should start out by asking for the same treatment Christian McCaffrey got, but that doesn’t match Kamara’s production over the last four years.

Kamara might be older and more experienced than other running backs getting paid in free agency, but he’s seen a similar NFL workload with 1,315 carries to Josh Jacobs’ 1,305 and Saquon Barkley’s 1,201. That wear and tear matters.

So let’s say his camp rejects that offer. We’ll raise it to $25 million total over three years, which lines…