Should 49ers give WR Brandon Aiyuk a No. 1 WR contract?

There are different ways to define a No. 1 receiver, because there are so many different types. Tyreek Hill burning safeties downfield, and making every simple screen a possible touchdown, is just as effective as Justin Jefferson blazing new trails with unparalleled route quickness, or Ja’Marr Chase just going Godzilla over unfortunate enemy defenders.

But when you see a No. 1 receiver, you know it. This is the guy who can take the opposing team’s best cornerback, and give him a Very Bad Day. This is the guy who can take a bracket coverage and bust it apart. This is the guy who can bail his quarterback out more often than not. This is the guy who can create order out of chaos. This is the guy every defensive backs fear in a league where fear is not an option. This is a guy who deserves the most money possible for what he does to help create the best possible offense.

Now, Brandon Aiyuk of the San Francisco 49ers is on the precipice of the No. 1 receiver argument. In 2023, the 2020 25th overall pick out of Arizona State caught 84 passes on 120 targets for 1,491 yards and eight touchdowns. This after a 2023 season in which he caught 84 passes on 121 targets for 1,124 yards and eight touchdowns. So, consistency is not an issue. Last season, Aiyuk caught 15 passes of 20 or more air yards on 25 targets for 488 yards and five touchdowns.

Over the last two regular seasons, Aiyuk ranks 22nd in catches (153), 29th in targets (219), 11th in receiving yards (2,357), and 11th in touchdowns (15). No qualifying receiver (at least 50 catches total over the last two seasons) has a higher Success Rate (receptions of at least 40% of yards required on first down, at least 60% of yards required on second down, and 100% of required yards on third or fourth down, divided by targets) than Aiyuk, and only Rashid Shaheed of the New Orleans Saints (11.1) has a higher Yards per Target average over the last two seasons than Aiyuk’s 10.8. And Aiyuk’s catch rate of 69.9% is unusually high for a guy with so many deep targets.

So, we know that Brandon Aiyuk has made the absolute most of his opportunities. But does that make him a No. 1 receiver no matter where he goes? It’s an important discussion, because Aiyuk wants to be paid like one, and there appears to be a schism between what Aiyuk believes he’s worth, and what the 49ers can (or will) shell out.

Let’s go to the tape and investigate.