For the first time since 2014, college football fans can simulate their favorite matchup of the weekend with an updated roster.
EA Sports released College Football 25 in the middle of July, but its most recent title update came just two days before Week 1 of the season kicks off for the Florida Gators. So, we ran 10 simulations of the Battle for the Florida Cup to see what EA thinks will happen on Saturday.
The results might surprise you.
Before we dive into things, let’s talk methodology. We went with 10 simulations because five sounds like too small of a sample size and more than 10 sounds laborious. College Football 25 allows you “Super Sim” games and review the stats afterward before “restarting” the matchup. We did these in batches of two, just in case the computer resets significantly when a new game is set up.
The user control went with Florida, and the difficulty was set to Heisman. Neither should affect the simulation. Quarter lengths were set to six minutes with the accelerated clock off, which allows for semi-realistic final scores.
We also moved Kam Waites into the starting right tackle spot and removed Jamari Lyons, who is injured in real life.
Now let’s go over the results.
Overall Breakdown
Florida and Miami split the 10 simulations evenly, but the ‘Canes averaged more than a field goal better than the Gators on the scoreboard. Some quick math leads us to 33.3 points per game for Miami and 29.5 for Florida, which is a greater difference than the plus-2.5 spread UF has been awarded on most major sportsbooks.
Those numbers don’t tell the whole story, though. Four of Florida’s five wins came by a one-score margin, whereas Miami won four of five by multiple scores. In other words, Miami has the better chance to make this a blowout, but if things stay competitive, Florida might have the edge.
Offense
On offense, there’s little to worry about if you’re a Gators fan. Graham Mertz averaged 296 passing yards and 2.2 touchdowns per…
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