Featured on Rams Revealed Ep. 117

In the final minute of the Los Angeles Rams documentary Locked In, Matthew Stafford is seated on a couch in his living room, reflecting on arguably the best statistical season of his career and anticipating his 16^th.

“I want a gold jacket,” he said while isolated in a single shot facing the camera, in his most candid statement on record about his Hall of Fame candidacy. “And I know what I’ve got to do to get there, and that’s win Super Bowls. I want to do it at least one more time, maybe twice.”

If Stafford wins another Lombardi Trophy, you can toss this column in a digital furnace because it won’t be necessary. He’ll have his bust in Canton.

But in the meantime, at the outset of the 2024 campaign – one that now centers on what’s left of Stafford’s prime, following the retirement of Aaron Donald – it might be worth a moment to check the standings.

Pro Football Reference has a valuable tool that monitors Hall of Fame resumes by position. Using their scoring system for quarterbacks, we can draw a few conclusions.

First, there are three retired legends who are locks as soon as their names come up: Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Brees.

Then, there’s an active signal-caller who’s irrefutably in even if he never played another down: Patrick Mahomes.

There’s another in his prime who’s going to be hard to argue against if he can make any postseason headway: Lamar Jackson.

And good luck keeping a two-time champion named Manning out, especially since he triumphed over Brady. Plus, Eli’s done a nice job remaining relevant in his post-playing career.

As for Stafford’s case, let’s dig in. (You’ll notice I’m not much for counting stats, though they absolutely matter to voters. I similarly don’t put stock in Pro Bowl honors.)

We must concede that for now, Stafford is significantly below the threshold score of an average Hall of Fame quarterback. That and the fact he’s never won an MVP or All-Pro honor mean there are headwinds working against his enshrinement.

But let’s be serious – there’s a heaping of context that has to be mentioned here. Since Stafford entered the league, 12 of the 15 MVP honors have been claimed by Rodgers, Mahomes, Manning, Brady, and Jackson.

The only other quarterback peers who have collected the top honor during Stafford’s career are where this study gets interesting. Cam Newton won the 2015 MVP, then lost the Super Bowl. Matt Ryan…