Slight changes made to Penn State’s win probability from ESPN FPI

Penn State was among the Big Ten teams getting an early idle week on the schedule in Week 3, but there were still some modifications to ESPN’s Football Power Index numbers while Penn State was resting. Compared to a week ago, not a tone has changed with how ESPN’s FPI metric is currently forecasting the remainder of Penn State’s regular season, although the win probability for a couple of games spiked up following the results around the Big Ten in Week 3.

Big losses at home by Wisconsin and Purdue seem to have carried a little weight in Penn State’s favor on the win probability front this week. Penn State was already favored in those matchups on the road later this season. But Wisconsin losing its starting quarterback and getting dominated at home by Alabama has given Penn State a better outlook according to the updated FPI calculations this week. The same goes for Penn State’s road game at Purdue. Already a considerable favorite going into the November road trip, Purdue getting dismantled at home by Notre Dame has leaned the scale more in Penn State’s favor.

A few games on the schedule did continue to trend downward for Penn State’s win probability, but nothing too drastic to suggest the Nittany Lions are in anything as close to a toss-up outside of the games against Ohio State and USC. The Buckeyes and Trojans each became the favorite in the FPI matchup predictor following Week 2 after Penn State got off to a slow start against Bowling Green. Penn State remains the underdog in each matchup with slight downticks in the win probability this week despite all three being idle in Week 3.

Here is an updated look at the game-by-game predictions as predicted by ESPN’s fresh FPI numbers.