Atlanta has run the ball on 57.9% of its first-down plays this season, which has likely impacted how defenses are playing and opened up opportunities in the pass game. Against the Saints, the Falcons will need to continue their run of form on first down, and while that might suggest a lean towards throwing the ball, Atlanta can’t and won’t abandon the run game.
New Orleans has been one of the top defenses in the league on first down, allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete just 59.1% of their passes for a 62.4 passer rating. Overall, New Orleans has a 64.3 defensive success rate on first down, so it will be a little bit of a strength-on-strength situation on Sunday. The best way for the Falcons to impact this defense though, is to keep the game close.
The Saints defense has faced a total of 33 opponent offensive drives. On 21 of those drives, New Orleans has had at least a 10-point lead. The Saints defense has played 64% or nearly two-thirds of its plays with a two-score lead at minimum. That allows you to do many different things on defense, but it also limits what the offense can afford to do.
On the 21 drives they’ve faced while holding at least a 10-point lead, New Orleans has a 58.7% defensive success rate, has allowed just 1.19 points per drive and forced a three-and-out from the offense on 47% of drives. The Saints have faced only two drives when trailing or tied. The Falcons must keep the game close and force the Saints to play more like their Week 3 game than what we saw out of them in Week 1 and 2.
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