Projecting the College Football Playoff top 25 after Week 12

BYU losing to Kansas on Saturday could present a far bigger shake-up in the College Football Playoff race than one loss might typically indicate.

If the CFP selection committee drops BYU out of its top 12 and puts Boise State in, the Broncos could earn a first-round bye as one of the four highest-ranked conference champions instead of a Big 12 team.

And if that were to happen, No. 11 Tennessee in this week’s scenario would be knocked out of the field to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion — one-loss BYU.

And you thought the controversy ended with the four-team playoff.

There should be no surprises at the top after No. 1 Oregon escaped Wisconsin with a win. And Georgia‘s home victory over Tennessee changed the two-loss pecking order, but by how much?

Here’s a look at the weekly prediction of what the top 25 might look like in the committee’s third ranking on Tuesday. Remember, this is not a projection of what it will look like on Selection Day. Rather, it’s a snapshot of who’s in the driver’s seat now, based on what they have done to this point and how the committee has already evaluated them.

The 12-team playoff seeding will look different from this ranking, as well. The top four highest-ranked conference champions receive byes, and the top five conference champions receive entry into the field.

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Projecting the top 12

Why they could be here: The Ducks came from behind and avoided an upset at Wisconsin — barely. It wasn’t pretty, but the committee will keep undefeated Oregon at the top, and its head-to-head win against Ohio State is a safeguard for it. Oregon has the best résumé in the country and ranks No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of record metric. Wins against Boise State, Ohio State, Illinois and at Michigan have separated the Ducks from other contenders, including undefeated Indiana.

Why they could be lower: It’s highly unlikely the committee would drop the Ducks after a Big Ten road win.

Need to know: Oregon is one win away from clinching a spot in the Big Ten title game but technically hasn’t done that yet. Oregon has positioned itself well enough that it should be a lock for the CFP even if it finishes as a one-loss runner-up in the Big Ten.

Remaining games: Nov. 30 vs. Washington

Why they could be here: The Buckeyes are unlikely to move…