Ranking the top 8 seeds in the FCS playoffs by their one-and-done chances

The second round of the 2024 FCS playoffs is here. The top eight seeds can rest no longer as their byes have concluded and new opponents are coming to town. It’s not a given that any of the top seeds in the playoffs will win — and a few should be on upset alert.

Here’s my ranking of which top-eight seeds should be on one-and-done watch.

1. No. 6 UIW

Opponent: No. 11 Villanova

Villanova needed some hotly debated calls to go its way in the first round, but the Wildcats are still a talented team deserving of its opening playoff win. Villanova beat Delaware and New Hampshire during the regular season — two teams better than anyone UIW beat. The Wildcats are battle-tested and could have a chip on their shoulder after some questioned last week’s win. It’s the perfect formula for an upset in San Antonio.

2. No. 7 Mercer

Opponent: No. 10 Rhode Island

Rhode Island nearly suffered an upset of its own against Central Connecticut State to open the playoffs. That close win keeps URI-Mercer from taking the top spot on this list. However, I think the Rams have a solid shot at landing an upset thanks to their defense. Led by A.J. Pena, Rhode Island could keep a Mercer offense in check to allow its offense to gradually build against a Mercer defense that is the best in the FCS. That could be a recipe for success that sends the Bears to a second-round hibernation.

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3. No. 3 South Dakota State

Opponent: No. 14 Montana

The back-to-back defending champs are the third-highest-ranked team on upset watch this weekend. That’s because South Dakota State is playing the same team it beat to close last year’s postseason run to open this year’s postseason run — the Montana Grizzlies.

Of course, neither of these teams is the same as last year, but key pieces from both squads remain. Most notably, wide receiver Junior…