Packers would need 12 results to go their way to get No. 1 seed in NFC playoffs

Please note: This post describing the Green Bay Packers’ highly unlikely path to the No. 1 seed is the playoff equivalent of this iconic scene. “So you’re telling me there’s a chance!” Don’t take this too seriously. Have fun.

Ok. We’ve established that the Packers (9-4) are a long shot to factor into the NFC North race and now likely destined to compete for wildcard positioning over the final four weeks of the 2024 season.

But let’s get crazy: Is there a path to the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs for Matt LaFleur’s team?

The short answer: Yes. But it would require 12 different results going the Packers’ way over the final four weeks.

To get the top seed and a first-round bye, the Packers would need all 12 of these things to happen:

— The Packers need to win out (4-0)
— The Lions need to lose out (0-4)
— The Eagles need to lose at least three of final four
— The Bears must beat the Vikings in Week 15

Here’s one example of how this would work:

1. Bills beat Lions
2. Steelers beat Eagles
3. Packers beat Seahawks
4. Bears beat Vikings
5. Bears beat Lions
6. Commanders beat Eagles
7. Packers beat Saints
8. Packers beat Vikings
9. Cowboys beat Eagles
10. 49ers beat Lions
11. Vikings beat Lions
12. Packers beat Bears

In this scenario, the Packers finish 13-4, jump the Lions (who fall to 12-5), the Eagles (who also fall to at least 12-5) and the Vikings to win the NFC North and secure the No. 1 seed in the postseason.

Unsurprisingly, the New York Times playoff simulator gives the Packers less than a one percent chance of becoming the No. 1 seed. In fact, by kickoff in Seattle on Sunday night, this possibility could be gone and the Packers could be eliminated from contention from the No. 1 seed in the NFC. I mean, how much help can the Packers expect from the Chicago Bears?

One more scenario. What would it take for the Packers to win the NFC North? A few less results. But still a miracle.

The Packers would need to win out (going 4-0), have the Lions lose all four games (0-4) and have the Bears beat the Vikings in Week 15 — so nine results.

But, hey, what fun is having a playoff-contending team in December without enjoying some crazy, nearly impossible and hypothetical fun with the playoff simulators?